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库威哈3大超级后卫,谁能拿30000分?一人板上钉钉,一人彻底没戏(库里、威少、哈登三大后卫谁能冲击3万分?一人稳了,一人无望)

发布时间: 2026-01-14

Calculating scoring projections

I’m adding up some seasons to project scoring totals. For the 2019-20 Rockets, it was about 1,851 points; the 2020-21 Wizards had around 1,800; the 2021-22 Lakers had about 1,410; the 2022-23 Lakers/Clippers were around 1,000; and the 2023-24 Clippers could be roughly 880. That totals approximately 6,941, which brings us close to 25,800 by 2023-24. I wonder if he'll manage to reach 30k given his declining role and potential injuries.Evaluating scoring predictions

If he has about 25.9k points, he'd need around 4.1k more, which at 17 points per game would take around 241 games—about three seasons assuming he plays 80 games per season. That's feasible, but with potential further scoring drops and earlier retirement, it raises questions. I think Curry is a lock to surpass 30k, given his shooting ability. Harden has a chance due to his background, but Westbrook seems unlikely. Let's finalize this response carefully, providing disclaimers about knowledge limits.

unlik

结论先说:

quest

  • 板上钉钉:斯蒂芬·库里。打法最耐老、效率与产量都还在高位,3万分只是时间问题。
  • 彻底没戏:拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克。角色和出场时间持续下滑,以如今的使用率很难再攒够余下的分。
  • 仍有机会但不稳:詹姆斯·哈登。总分已在2.5万上下,若每季稳定千分出头、再打3–4季可到,但取决于角色、健康和合同年限。

简要理由:

  • 库里:近季仍是高产得分手(中高20+分/场),三分投射与无球跑位极度耐老,即使随着年龄每季下滑些,按每季60–70场、场均22–26分的节奏,3–4季即可补齐所需的6000–7000分区间。
  • 哈登:得分重心已让位于组织,但基础产量仍在(中高十几分/场)。若能保持健康与稳定出勤,每季约1000–1300分,3–4季大致够到3万;但若进一步降到场均低十几分或出勤受限,时间会被拉长。
  • 威少:总分虽不低,但过去两季得分与上场时间明显回落,球权在争冠球队中更少。要补齐大约4000+分,按如今场均10–12分、每季60来场的现实节奏,往往需要5季上下,且角色趋势还在下行,难度极大。

如果你想,我可以按你心中更贴近的每季出勤和场均得分,给三人做一个赛季级别的达标时间线预测表。

ng